Utilities · Case study

Leading UK Water & Sewerage Utility

Missed flooding targets triggered significant regulatory penalties every year of the AMP period.

The context

A UK water and sewerage utility serving millions of customers was locked into a cycle of regulatory penalties, repeatedly missing external and internal flooding targets with no reliable way to forecast risk across network conditions, geography, weather and maintenance activity.

At a glance

Sector
Utilities
Headline result
£15,000earned on the external flooding ODI

What we did

The approach.

  1. 01

    Modelled the risk

    Built a Prophet-based forecasting model drawing on network, geography, weather and maintenance data to predict flooding risk more accurately.

  2. 02

    Diagnosed the causes

    Segmentation models analysed incident causes and identified recurring blockage patterns.

  3. 03

    Made it actionable

    Generated clear recommendations so maintenance teams could prioritise interventions and business teams could plan targeted action.

  4. 04

    Shifted the operating model

    Moved the utility from a reactive to a preventive approach to flood management, with predictability built into planning.

The outcome

What changed.

£15,000 earned

on the external flooding ODI, penalty turned to reward

More predictable

reliable flooding forecasts replacing guesswork

Reactive → preventive

a structurally different operating model

Let's talk

Want an outcome like this?

A senior engineer on the call from day one. Two weeks to a written architecture and a working reference build.