Utilities · Case study
Leading UK Water & Sewerage Utility
Missed flooding targets triggered significant regulatory penalties every year of the AMP period.
The context
A UK water and sewerage utility serving millions of customers was locked into a cycle of regulatory penalties, repeatedly missing external and internal flooding targets with no reliable way to forecast risk across network conditions, geography, weather and maintenance activity.
At a glance
- Sector
- Utilities
- Headline result
- £15,000earned on the external flooding ODI
- Service lines
- AIData & Cloud Transformation
What we did
The approach.
- 01
Modelled the risk
Built a Prophet-based forecasting model drawing on network, geography, weather and maintenance data to predict flooding risk more accurately.
- 02
Diagnosed the causes
Segmentation models analysed incident causes and identified recurring blockage patterns.
- 03
Made it actionable
Generated clear recommendations so maintenance teams could prioritise interventions and business teams could plan targeted action.
- 04
Shifted the operating model
Moved the utility from a reactive to a preventive approach to flood management, with predictability built into planning.
The outcome
What changed.
£15,000 earned
on the external flooding ODI, penalty turned to reward
More predictable
reliable flooding forecasts replacing guesswork
Reactive → preventive
a structurally different operating model
More work
Other engagements.
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